MrMoves

It was a tough weekend for Small Acorns 2 and, as a result, I decided to withdraw £500 again. I was frustratingly close to reaching a grand last Friday then made a few poor decisions. The temptation was to simply absorb that decline and get right back on the bike. Then I realised just how far I’d take the Small Acorns deposits this month.

I’ve deposited £30 and taken out £1000 in two £500 chunks. That’s pretty useful money in anyones book and I intend to put it to good use by getting my car serviced and treating my family to a few days out. It’s very satisfying to use that money in a sensible way.

The Big Deal DVD arrived today and I’ve already watched the first four episodes. It’s strange to see the old £1 and £5 notes being used, the cars, the smokey old bookmakers and spielers and an array of actors that have since been used in Eastenders. I’ll probably get through the next four in short time. The BBC really should make a modern day version of Big Deal. May be set in Hull with Devilfish as the lead character?

I heard a trainer discussing his maiden runner yesterday with the course “expert” on ATR. When discussing how his horse would act on the ground he said “It’s no big deal….” and for some reason the old BBC 1 show starring Ray Brooks popped into my head.

“Big Deal” was a comedy/drama broadcast in the mid-eighties. It featured Robby Box, played by Brooks, as a gambling addict and it got me wondering how Robby would get on with the gambling world today. Would he be a layer on the exchanges? would he arb’? maybe he’d be a $50/$100 PLO player or a circuit grinder.

I remember Big Deal fondly. It was probably my first introduction into gambling when it was first shown in 1984 (I was 8). It couldn’t have been much after that time I was spending my pocket money on Lucky 15s. I’ve picked up the DVD of Series 1, to be delivered early next week, and I really can’t wait to see Robby again.

Meanwhile, Small Acorns marches on. Yesterday was a tough day. The account took a 10% knock early on and it took all afternoon to get ahead. Eventually the day ended on £720 after a good evening session. A bag of sand is on the horizon.

Small Acorns part deux has been progressing nicely. There haven’t been any ridiculous jumps up in the account balance (sadly) instead I’ve been experiencing a steady incline each day. That’s not to say the increase hasn’t been substantial:

Obviously I’m delighted with the progress of that second account but it appears I’ve aroused the suspicion of a few Betfair Forum regulars. I’m not a regular Betfair Forum user because forums, by their very nature, quickly attract trolls and plenty of “Internet Heroes”. However, last Sunday, I was studying some race form for one of the latter races on the daytime cards. I noted a horse had been well supported all day and was currently trading at 4.6 on Betfair. Recent form pointed to poor performances on the current ground and longer term form, involving several pull-ups, was terrible. That horse was a big lay in my book and I acted accordingly. I then made a post on Betfair which stated that this horse would not be winning and would be lucky to run the distance. All went well and after only three hurdles the horse pulled up. Within minutes a user had started a thread asking Betfair to investigate the race, the horse and my comments! Clearly somebody had backed the horse heavily and was pretty upset to be so wrong on this occasion.

I’m actually disappointed not to be investigated by Betfair for that lay. I was pretty proud of getting it exactly right

Previously I haven’t set a target in mind for Small Acorns. However on this occasion the target is £1000. I believe that to be a realistic target now and will attempt to increase the bankroll by 5 - 10% per day until it is achieved. The reason for that target is the school holidays! It would be great to have that funded by a week or so on the exchange.

Reaching milestones is always satisfying but it’s been a while since I’ve done anything of note involving poker or gambling in general. So to pass the £500 mark from my £10 deposit into Betfair in only 5 days has been very pleasing indeed.

£112 was added to Small Acorns again yesterday leaving the current bank today on:

It could’ve been so much more too! The peak of the account was £543 but two small lays on the American racing went amiss. I also didn’t trust in my own judgement by backing a 9/1 shot and a 6/1 shot in the US. Instead I chose to lay the favs in both races. The favs were never in the frame but the selections to win both trotted up! The 9/1 won by 8lengths. So I should really be looking at £600+ today but it’s still hard to complain about such a run.

I’m slowing down today and I’m only going to look at a select number of races so the next update might not contain a jump up in figures.

Ohh and thanks for the support on MSN and Facebook. It is appreciated. It’s also fascinating that people are expressing an interest in investing into such things. I really wouldn’t know how to run such a syndicate nor if it would be worthwhile for me to attempt such a thing. Would I really want to split my profits? I can see the benefits of having a lump of cash invested but I doubt I could turn £10,000 into £500,000. Liquidity would be an issue to start with, especially on US racing. All comments welcome if you have any suggestions.

Betfair, apparently, went through a software upgrade yesterday. The upgrade resulted in frozen “Loading” screens, no “Today’s Card” menu and a constant need to refresh. Things came to a head just after the first UK race of the day and didn’t really improve until around 10pm that evening. I wonder if the techs were enjoying the afternoon and early evening at the pub?

Anyway things eventually got going and I managed to grab another £112 for the Small Acorns account. Leaving the current standing today, below:

Now I’m tantalizingly close to the milestone £500 mark. The temptation is to throw in a few large backs or lays to get over the “monkey line”. I stopped being temptated by such things a long time ago and will be simply carrying on as per normal.

A few people have privately asked me how I’ve managed to do so well on Betfair from the £10 deposit. I think I’ve explained Day 1 here on my blog and that it did involve more risk than I would currently be happy to undertake. Now I have a reasonable bankroll the risk is lower. During the UK racing my tactic is to only lay horses in running. I believe I am good at race reading and can generally tell what horse is travelling poorly some way from the finish line. Pre-race I will make a selection to “follow” based on the horse’s recent form. A lay is lined up on that horse at the odds I’d like to lay at and I simply wait for the right time to press the button. If I’ve made an error and I have followed one which looks likely to be involved in the finish then everything is cancelled and no lay is made. I then move on to the next race.

Some more facts:

- The in running lays are always at odds of 20 or less.
- Average Small Acorns laying odds in running are 14.34
- No more than 20% of the bank is risked on any in running lay
- Pre-race lays are at odds under 10 and risk no more than 10% of the bank

That covers the UK racing strategy at present. The American racing is a much tougher proposition for the layer. There are no in running markets to start with so all selections have to be made pre-race. Given the limited form available for the US horses coupled with the lack of in running I will never risk more than 5% on any one back/lay. That said! I’ve had some great success with the American racing so far. There can be great value on offer for both backer and layer and liquidity seems to be increasing all the time. Maybe it’s the hot summer nights keeping the sleepless UK punters on their machines?

Here’s to a good days racing today, hopefully all the courses will have enough water!

24 hour horse racing certainly helps to occupy the mind when you’re awake at 1am, hot and sticky due to the heatwave and excited about 5f maidens at Indiana Downs

So a quick update from last night’s (this morning’s?) action from the good old U S of A. It’s pretty hard to put in the study work on American racing. The web is blessed with information but a handy form guide for the days racing in The Land of the Free appears to be lacking. At The Races have some basic info and occasionally the US experts let us know where their pin landed on that particular race. Armed to the teeth with that information I managed to grind out another £100 for the Small Acorns account:

Today is day 4 for Small Acorns and we have three afternoon meetings, rather than two. The £10 deposit has gone a long way but I’m not getting carried away. A loss for the day is probably lurking around the corner. I just hope it will hold off for a few more days!

The Small Acorns are starting to grow nicely although the large oak tree is some way off just yet!. Here is the last 2 days worth of Profit/Loss on Betfair:

Each bet, apart from one, was on the horse racing. I saved one back on a greyhound called He Went Woosh! He did indeed go woosh despite coming out of the traps in 4th and a long way off the pace. Some poor soul layed him for 1000 in-running and was matched, but only for £1. Still a bag of sand down the drain when the dog was never out of the race. Crazy! I took the 2.2 pre-race.

I also hit the US racing for the first few races and the last race I backed the 1 and 1A horse for £5 each. 1A won at a canter for an £11 profit. That put the Small Acorns account on £202 after 3 days. I’m pretty happy with that bank after starting on £10.

Now, if only I could get a £100,000 sub!